Make better decisions by anticipating disaster

People are stupid when it comes to risk.  For one thing, we don’t understand risk in our personal lives. We grossly overestimate our chances of winning the Lotto and underestimate the possibility of a car accident when we text and drive. 

We under-insure to protect ourselves and over-insure to protect our stuff. We panic about unlikely events we see on TV, and we are scarily under-prepared for imminent threats.  

When it comes to work, we’re no better.  

We underestimate the risk of failure when we plan our time and projects, and we overestimate the risk of doing things we don’t understand. The net result: We plan poorly and play safe.

Playing it safe is never risk-free. When we fail to act on things that matter, we can lose time, money, opportunity and potential for impact. Like the turtle, who only makes progress when his neck is stuck out, we compromise progress by fearing change and chance.  

When I work with teams on strategy and risk, I play a game called ‘it’s been a disaster!’ Here, we plan for the worst things we can imagine, from the probable to the ridiculous. Eventually, we realise the catch: these scenarios might all be on the cards whether or not we take the chance. 

In 2011, Mark Zuckerberg gave a rare interview, telling a group of young entrepreneurs: 

"The biggest risk is not taking any risk. In a world that's changing really quickly, the only strategy that is guaranteed to fail is not taking risks." -  Mark Zuckerberg 

I recently interviewed Mayor Khal Asfour from the City of Canterbury Bankstown, a Council who has pushed boundaries on technology-rich city solutions and community engagement. Interestingly, Mayor Asfour talked more about risk, leadership and culture than he did about technology - echoing Zuckerberg’s thoughts from 2011. 

By providing permission to try new things and risk failure, his Council is better placed to solve community problems and provide better services in new and better ways. 

Makes sense to me.  

Are you playing it safe?