Predicting the future is impossible, but all your goals live there, so you can’t avoid thinking about it. We need plans to channel our time, energy, and money despite having little idea what the next few years will hold or how well our ideas will work.
Last week, we discussed the importance of keeping the dream alive. When we take our eye off the ball, our dreams die. Plans are simply predictions about how we think we could achieve our goals. They’re a hypothesis, an experiment ready to be run.
Remember, there are three common things people do poorly when planning for the future:
This week, we’ll discuss the final mistake: assuming things will stay the same.
In all things future-focused, we should hope for the best and prepare for the worst. The worst is unlikely, but change is guaranteed. When have things ever gone exactly as you planned?
Anything you do that’s of any value will be vulnerable to the actions and choices of others, which means there is uncertainty involved. If there’s not, you're playing small, lying, or both. You can't eliminate that risk, but you can be prepared to succeed regardless of what happens.
Carry out a pre-mortem of sorts on all your important plans. In a pre-mortem, you identify what might go wrong, and how you might handle it. List all the things that might throw you off course, on a spectrum ranging from ‘a version of this will almost definitely happen’ to ‘surely not, that seems ridiculous.’ Then, consider how you'd manage each of those scenarios.
Tip: I'm a massive fan of Tim Ferris's fear-setting exercise. Ferris advocates for a rigorous approach that prepares you for change, puts your fears into reasonable perspective, and (my favourite part) contrasts those fears against the consequences of doing nothing. Take a look; it's great.
Preparation asks for more than contemplation. Real preparation for a disaster requires turning your ideas into triggers for action. Try taking an ‘if this, then that’ approach – identifying little markers or milestones that will tell you when it might be time to shift gears.
If our staff turnover exceeds 15% for three consecutive months, then we allocate an emergency fund to retention strategies.
If our digital adoption rate hits 70% by Q2, then we accelerate our online services rollout.
If new legislation restricts local budgets, then we pause this list of non-essential projects.
If we have another pandemic, then we activate our remote work strategy within 24 hours.
This approach is like programming your strategy with conditional statements. You don’t waste time dithering when the data changes; you decided your next move ahead of time.
The further you look into the future, the less clear that future becomes. The more people involved in your plan, the more likely it will change. The more affected you are by external shifts, the more you should prepare for strategic risks rather than operational ones. In short: the more significant your goals are, the more vulnerable you are to change – and the more likely you are to try and predict and mitigate your way out of it!
Prediction is tempting because it offers a false sense of certainty. It’s how our corporate planning documents are geared – multi-column tables with dates, times, budgets and KPIs. I get it. It feels good. Controllable, manageable.
But the future doesn’t care about your feelings. Economies flip, political tides shift, and new technologies pop up – and disappear - faster than you can say ‘metaverse.’ Even if things stay the same, your rigid focus might make you miss opportunities for great things you don’t notice because they’re not in your plan.
You can’t predict the future, but you can prepare for it.
Preparation elevates and expands your focus. You get clear on what matters most, hold multiple versions of the future in mind, and know the principles and values you’ll apply when things change. Don’t plot the precise details of your future. Instead, get crystal clear on your goals and intentions while holding multiple versions of the future in mind – staying ready to apply them to whatever comes up.
Prediction locks you into one view of the future. Preparation keeps the door open for multiple scenarios, bringing more nuance and innovation to your thinking.
Prediction assumes foreseeable behaviour.
Preparation assumes unpredictable change.
Preparation means we can go off-plan but stay on strategy, adapting as new realities unfold. Instead of one precarious path, you build multiple on-ramps and off-ramps. If you see a significant shift coming, you can pivot without rewriting your entire plan.
Focus on the outcomes you're looking for, the principles you'll apply, and how you'll bend and flex in disaster, and you're onto a winner.
When you anchor your future in clear, relative principles and flexible plans, keep the dream alive, and expect things to go pear-shaped, you can make progress no matter what tomorrow brings.
The best leaders aren’t the ones who predict the future; they’re the ones prepared to handle it.
That was the end of our three-part #futurefocus series. I hope it was useful.
Til next week,
AM
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